Pennsylvania - A group of scientists discovered a model that can predict time and point of the Ebola outbreak spread, by using a bat migration patterns as the primary host of the disease. The researchers published their research on May 22nd, 2018, in the journal Scientific Reports.
According to the latest data from the World Health Organization (WHO), an Ebola outbreak occurred in Congo that infected 58 people and killed up to half. This epidemic is the 9th time in Congo since 1976 when the deadly virus was first discovered at Ebola river.
One of the authors of the study, Paolo Bocchini, stated that usually in studying and researching diseases such as Ebola used the assumption that the disease moves uniformly.
"But in fact, the diseases that use animals as their host have a movement that depends on how the host migrates one point to another point," said Professor of civil and environmental engineering from the University of Lehigh, United States, as reported by the Live Science page.
By using information from satellites and data about infection rates, the birth and death of bats, Bocchini, and his team have developed a model that can follow the bat's migration patterns on the entire Africa continent.
Also read: Nipah Virus Outbreak Spread by Bat in India Kills 10 People 94 Quarantined
This model, coupled with the availability information and data about food and nest for bats, researchers will be able to accurately predict outbreaks central point by adjusting bat's migratory patterns in the case of Ebola outbreak in West Africa on 2014. The epidemic killed more than 11 thousand people.
The researchers used their model to generate a hypothesis related to the location of the Ebola outbreak in West Africa and using mapping bat migration patterns. As a result, the model was proven right that the outbreak occurred at the point where they predicted earlier.
For example, the model retroactively predicts the peak of Ebola outbreaks spread with bats as hosts in Guinea, Meliandou in 2014. And indeed, when researchers analyzed the Ebola disease report in the village over the same time period, they found their predictions match with period and where the outbreak occurred.
"Our current target is how to use this model to predict the future of Ebola spread," says Bocchini. "If we identify there is a high-level risk at a point location at any given time, we can immediately send allocated resources and assistance to that point," he added.
The aid includes vaccines, public health campaigns, and even some doctors. But in a very limited number.
Bocchini and his team have received funding from the National Institute of Health to continue their research. The researchers also hope that their model can be used for other types of diseases and in different places.
"We think that this model can also be used for other diseases," says Bocchini, not only for Ebola but other diseases such as Zika, although further research is needed".
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